We have made it through the first week of 2025, and now we turn our focus to the gridiron. It’s an exciting time with football taking center stage. Last night gave us some solid action, and tonight we’re treated to a College Football Playoff matchup that promises to deliver. NFL follows tomorrow, so this is shaping up to be a stellar weekend of sports. I have a FREE Ohio State-Texas CFB pick for you today; don’t forget that you can find even more +EV college football bets here at OddsShopper!
Free CFB Playoff Pick Today: Ohio State-Texas
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Penn State had its chances against Notre Dame, but turnovers sealed its fate. If you watched the game, you saw it. Weird calls, critical mistakes — Penn State just couldn’t capitalize, and it deserved the loss. Credit goes to Notre Dame; it’s a solid team, and the championship game will be fascinating no matter who the Irish face. But enough looking backward. It’s time to dive into tonight’s game, where we’ll try to finish the workweek on a high note.
Free CFB Expert Pick: Ohio State-Texas Over 53.0
I went back and forth on this game quite a bit. I’m a big believer in Ohio State — it’s looked like the best team to me — but I’m not counting Texas out. Both teams bring so much talent to the table, and while I don’t have a strong lean on the side, I do like the over.
The number I landed on is over 53.0 (-110), which I grabbed on Caesars. If you can find 52, even better, as push equity on scores like 28-24 or 31-21 would be fantastic. But for this pick, over 53 at standard juice is the play.
When it comes to games like this, the data can be noisy. You’re looking at non-conference schedules, isolated playoff matchups and a limited sample size. That said, we can infer some things about how this game will play out.
Ohio State is red hot. People were doubting it a few weeks ago, but since then, it’s steamrolled Tennessee (42-17) and avenged its regular-season loss to Oregon (41-21). It’s firing on all cylinders. Will Howard looks fantastic, Jeremiah Smith is a problem for any defense, and its edge rushers are wreaking havoc. Offensively, it’s efficient through the air, and I have no concerns about its ability to put up points against a respectable Longhorns defense.
Texas, on the other hand, will likely struggle to establish the run against Ohio State. It had issues running the ball against Arizona State, and I don’t see that changing here. But that’s OK for our over because it means it’ll have to lean on Quinn Ewers and the ing game. I expect Texas to utilize quick es, screens and chunk plays to stay competitive. That type of game script bodes well for extra possessions — exactly what we need to push this game over the total.
Both teams should find success offensively. Ohio State’s ing game is highly effective, and I don’t see Texas trying to force the run unnecessarily. Texas will need to air it out to keep pace. Turnovers, strip sacks, and short fields could also contribute to some quick scores. Historically, playoff games like this tend to open up, with the talent shining through in the end. First to 30 likely will win, and I expect a close, high-scoring game.
Best Ohio State-Texas Bet: Over 53.0 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
