We have yet another Monday Night Football doubleheader on our hands tonight, and it promises some meaningful action for both conferences, as playoff contenders from the AFC will take on playoff contenders from the NFC. While you’re here, I recommend checking out our guides to NFL expert picks!
Chargers-Cardinals Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday
Chargers-Cardinals Player Prop Pick for James Conner
The script for Monday night’s Chargers-Cardinals game is relatively clear — to me, at least. Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman will cook up a run-heavy game plan to roll over this Arizona defense, which ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and 28th in rushing success rate allowed (45.2%).
As a result, the Chargers will hold the ball for much of the game, and the Cardinals will likely have to more than usual to capitalize on their limited number of possessions. They already rank just 12th in rushing play percentage (47.5%) despite having a mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray.
This is all very bad news for running back James Conner. The news gets even worse when we factor in this Chargers defense ranking first in EPA allowed per rush and third in rushing success rate allowed (33.3%). Although Conner is averaging 67.2 rushing yards per game so far, a below-average performance seems likely.
But despite everything point to a down game for the veteran Conner, his rushing yardage prop (65.5 at BetMGM) is pretty much in line with his average. The under 65.5 will cost you -115 at BetMGM but is a much pricier -123 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore. Lock this one in before the value disappears.
Chargers-Cardinals Player Prop Pick: James Conner Under 65.5 Rushing Yards -115 at BetMGM
Chargers-Cardinals Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
I don’t love this pick, but I think there is some value here. The Chargers will likely be operating without several weapons at the skill positions, including Quentin Johnston, Gus Edwards and Hayden Hurst. That will force a lot onto the shoulders of lead running back J.K. Dobbins. Although Dobbins can score from anywhere on the field, I’m buying his backup, Kimani Vidal.
Vidal is more of a bruiser than Dobbins. Vidal stands 5-foot-8 and weighs 210 pounds while Dobbins is two inches taller and a few pounds lighter. While Dobbins is known for his 99th percentile speed, Vidal got here due to a combination of 87th-percentile speed and a solid frame. With goal-line back Gus Edwards down for the count, he profiles as the next man up in goal-to-go situations.
Ultimately, with Arizona’s defense struggling to stop the run — and Los Angeles’ offense committed to it (L.A. ranks third in rushing-play percentage) — I trust Vidal to find paydirt. His anytime touchdown scorer odds are just +360 at FanDuel. Most books have him in the +250 to +350 range, so we’re squeaking out some value here for the sixth-round rookie.
Chargers-Cardinals Anytime Touchdown Bet: Kimani Vidal +360 at FanDuel
