Using FanDuel by leveraging Portfolio EV to make better decisions and optimize your bets for long-term growth.
How to Beat FanDuel Sportsbook With Portfolio EV
To get started, the first thing you’ll need to do is use our FanDuel as your sportsbook. Although it is beneficial to select every sportsbook available (since it provides more opportunities and helps diversify your bets), you can tailor this step to match the sportsbooks you’re actively using.
Choosing Your Bet Categories
While you can narrow down your bet categories, it is best to start broad. This way, you don’t accidentally eliminate any profitable markets before you’ve had a chance to evaluate them. You can filter bets based on several criteria, including the time until the event, odds ranges, EV ranges and expected win rates. This allows you to start with the most comprehensive set of data and refine it later.
Additionally, you’ll see a slider for OS rating (OddsShopper’s rating system for bets). For initial setup, leaving this slider at 0 is a good starting point, as it will display all bets regardless of rating, so you can gauge a wide range of options. As you begin to refine your portfolio, you can adjust this to only show higher-rated bets.
Previewing and Analyzing Results
Once you’ve set up your parameters, Portfolio EV will show you the results based on your bankroll and selected sportsbooks. The tool will present historical performance data for each bet, showing metrics like expected win rate and expected value (EV). For example, if you set a $1,000 bankroll, you’ll get an idea of how much profit you could have earned based on previous results.
As you assess the results, you might notice certain types of bets are less profitable than others. Take a look at the screenshot below:
With broad parameters for all FanDuel markets, our ROI is barely positive at 0.4% and plenty of markets are -EV. That’s why we are going to start making adjustments to our FanDuel portfolio.
Narrowing Down Your Portfolio
After reviewing the results, you can eliminate underperforming markets or sportsbooks. For instance, here we see some high-volume markets like NBA assists, NBA 3-pointers, NBA points + rebounds + assists, NFL rushing yards, NFL receptions, NFL receiving yards and NHL points all return negatively on investment. As such, we will eliminate those markets from our portfolio and reassess.
Here are the updated results with those markets removed:
Well, how about that? FanDuel markets are now 7.9% +EV, and you would be profiting over $3,500 for every $45,355 wagered! That’s a more-than-solid return. But we may be able to do better …
Refining OS Rating and EV Range
Adjusting the OS rating and EV range can further optimize your portfolio. Initially, you might keep both sliders at 0 to get a broad set of recommendations. However, you can tweak these settings to fine-tune the bets recommended by the Portfolio EV tool. If you notice that the OS rating of 1 or 2 produces better results, try adjusting the filter to see if it improves your ROI.
However, be cautious: Overly strict settings might reduce the number of available bets and potentially lower your overall profit. Let’s set our FanDuel portfolio minimum OS Rating to 2 and see what we get:
So our total FanDuel portfolio gets a massive ROI boost to 13.4%, but our total profit goes down by over $1,000. Now, you may like that tradeoff, and your percentages will look great, but keeping the OS Rating at 0 would have you profiting more in the same timeframe. Such is the balance you must find for yourself as you’re building your portfolios.
Saving and Managing Your Portfolio
After refining your portfolio, save it under a recognizable name (e.g., +EV FanDuel Bets). Once saved, you can track it throughout the season. The Portfolio EV tool also allows you to receive notifications when new plus EV bets appear, making sure you don’t miss out on profitable opportunities.
Moreover, you can input your actual bankroll information to scale your bet sizes based on your funds, ensuring that the portfolio’s bet recommendations align with your financial goals.
Continual Monitoring and Optimization
Sportsbook odds and betting markets evolve, so it’s important to regularly check and adjust your portfolio. Whether FanDuel adjusts its pricing or a specific bet type begins to perform better, continual optimization is key to maintaining profitability.
By going through this process, you’ll be able to refine your betting strategy and focus on the bets that give you the highest edge as you figure out how to beat FanDuel Sportsbook.
