The first PGA event outside of Hawaii is always met with mixed fanfare. On one hand, the American Express offers a colorful mixes of golfers and celebrities in the Pro-Am format. For others, especially those betting the event, the three-course rotation is a tough variable to handicap. There’s a healthy rotation of 50 golfers across the three courses from Thursday through Saturday, with the Stadium course being the final equalizer on Sunday. This makes betting anything — first-round leaders or outright winners — a little more challenging. We love a challenge. Here are the best American Express first-round leader picks!
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First Round Leader Best Bets for the American Express
American Express First Round Leader Picks: Patrick Cantlay
PGA West is no stranger to Patrick Cantlay. He saw a nice bounce back after struggling early at the Sentry, but it was the means of his recovery that should propel him to a great start on Thursday. Cantlay’s main weapon was his putter, which should immediately transfer to this set of courses. PGA West is not known for much in the way of rough or tough hazard placement to get in his way. This is a birdie fest where the steadiest putter wins.
Cantlay handled each of these courses in four of the last five years. Outside of last year’s 52nd-place finish — he still ended up -15 on the tournament — he has a 26th and three top-10 finishes. He was second in 2021. We take a chalk option mainly because there’s an edge with familiarity, and Cantlay’s putter looks sharp early in the year. Like most courses that are easier to get on the green, it’s going to be putting and recovery that tell the story. Cantlay checks those boxes.
American Express First Round Leader Picks: Sepp Straka
Here’s the long shot. Straka has been more of a mixed bag at PGA West, but when he’s on, he’s good enough to win. We just need him to hone that performance on Day 1, but if he’s putting the way he did in Hawaii, it might be easier said than done. Straka has missed two cuts over the past four years, but the other two netted a 49th- and a fourth-place finish. He’s successfully navigated PGA West with accurate approach shots and even steadier putting. This is a place that’s caused some challenges, but it’s also reflected in how he was playing overall, not specific to this event.
Straka comes off back-to-back made cuts in Hawaii, finishing top 15 and top 30. The conditions were tougher, yet he prevailed with his short game. His putter helped key the lower-scoring rounds, and he will have to near 8 or 9 under par to secure us a win. It’s the same recipe as above with Cantlay: Ball striking, recovery, birdies. Straka has been able to turn great shots or putts into action; expect that for at least the first round on Thursday.
