I hope everyone had an awesome holiday, whether you spent it betting, hanging out with family or doing something completely different. Now we turn the page, and it’s time to dive into some action. We have a stacked day ahead — bowl games, Thursday Night Football, EPL soccer. It’s a great time to be a sports fan. I have a FREE Arkansas State-Bowling Green CFB pick today, and you can go to OddsShopper for all of our +EV college football bets!
Free College Football Expert Pick Today: Arkansas State-Bowling Green
My Christmas was good overall, but the Steelers didn’t do us any favors. They got thoroughly outplayed at home for their third straight loss. Despite solid closing line value, it wasn’t the result we wanted. That said, we move on to today.
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Free CFB Expert Pick: Over 53.5
Arkansas State has been a frustrating team for me this season, but one thing it consistently brings is offensive firepower. Its dual-threat quarterback has plenty of experience and can make plays both in the air and on the ground. The Red Wolves play at a fast tempo, generate turnovers and score points.
The problem is they can’t stop anyone. Arkansas State ranks 129th in yards allowed per play, and its defense has been a liability all year. It can’t stop the run, and it is even worse against the . Plus, it will be without a key cornerback in this game.
Here’s a quick rundown of some of its defensive lowlights:
- Allowed 40 points to Old Dominion in its last game.
- Gave up 52 to Iowa State, 41 to Texas State and 55 to Louisiana earlier in the season.
- Even gave up 28 to Southern Miss, one of the worst offenses in the country.
On the other side, Bowling Green brings a solid offense led by quarterback Connor Bazelak. It will be without a starting offensive lineman and a linebacker, but honestly, I see that as a potential boost for the over — it means less depth and more big plays.
Bowling Green will get what it needs against this Arkansas State defense. And while Arkansas State’s offense has enough juice to stay competitive, its defense’s inability to stop anyone makes the over the obvious play here.
This game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair: Fast tempos on both sides, a terrible Arkansas State defense, playmakers who can exploit mismatches and bowl game variance, which often leads to chunk plays, turnovers and trick plays.
I’m projecting this one to end up in the 30s for both teams, and 53.5 feels too low. I expect this line to keep climbing as more money pours in on the over.
Best Arkansas State-Bowling Green Bet: Over 53.5 (-115, FanDuel)
